The post Joint report highlights food safety risks as contaminants mount up appeared first on The Source.
]]>Amid growing use of alternative water sources in agriculture, experts raised concerns about harmful chemical contaminants entering the food chain. Using a global framework, the group identified high-priority substances – including arsenic, lead, cadmium, fluoride, microcystins, and PFAS (Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances – or ‘forever chemicals’) – based on dietary exposure risks.
The report highlights gaps in monitoring, regulation and standardised assessment methods. Participants urged enhanced cross-sector collaboration under a ‘One Health’ approach, alongside improved guidance, research and capacity building to better manage chemical risks in agrifood water systems.
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]]>The post UNICEF warns of cholera risk in conflict-stricken Sudan appeared first on The Source.
]]>Conflict has forced more than three million people to flee their homes in Khartoum State. With large parts of the state becoming more accessible, more than 34,000 people have returned since the beginning of 2025. Most are returning to damaged homes in areas where basic services, including water and sanitation, are largely unavailable, with more than one million children estimated to live in the affected localities.
Recent continuous attacks on power plants have disrupted electricity supply and worsened water shortages, significantly impacting access to safe and clean water. This has forced many families to collect water from unsafe and contaminated sources, increasing the risk of cholera and other deadly waterborne diseases, especially in overcrowded neighbourhoods and displacement sites.
UNICEF is implementing a multi-pronged cholera response, targeting high-risk communities and supporting essential water infrastructure, including the provision of water treatment chemicals (polymer and chlorine) and a 1000 kilovolt-amperes generator to sustain operations at Al Manara Water Treatment Plant, serving more than one million people in Karrari and Old Omdurman.
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]]>The post WMO report provides global drought monitoring insights appeared first on The Source.
]]>Titled ‘Drought Impact Monitoring: Baseline Review of Practices’ and released under the banner of the Integrated Drought Management Programme – a joint initiative of the WMO and the Global Water Partnership – the report presents a global overview of current practices, highlighting case studies and identifying examples of good practice, and enabling environments that support effective monitoring.
The report provides operational guidelines to help countries establish or refine their drought monitoring systems. It also encourages cross-sector collaboration, open databases and tools to improve data accessibility, and tailored systems that can be adapted to local needs.
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]]>The post Parched Earth appeared first on The Source.
]]>By examining the intersection of climatic drivers and underlying vulnerabilities, this report aims to reinforce the continued importance of improving drought monitoring, planning and response capabilities, while providing actionable insights for researchers, policymakers and humanitarian organisations working to address drought resilience.
The report finds that the impacts of climate change, including rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and the 2023-24 El Niño event, are the primary drivers of the droughts that have been experienced in recent years, amplifying soil moisture deficits and evaporation, and transforming regional water deficits into systemic disruptions.
Major drought hotspots
The report identifies several regions under acute stress, including: Eastern and Southern Africa, where more than 90 million people are facing acute hunger; Somalia where ~43,000 drought-related deaths were recorded in 2022 and 25% of the country’s population faced crisis-level food insecurity by early 2025; and Zambia, where river flows have dropped to 20% of average flows and the Kariba Dam dropped to just 7% capacity, impacting hydropower supplies resulting in daily blackouts, disrupting healthcare, industry and daily life.
In Turkey, groundwater depletion has resulted in sinkholes, threatening infrastructure and ecosystems. Meanwhile, in Latin America, Amazon watersheds hit historic lows in 2023-24, precipitating mass fish and river dolphin deaths, and compromising transport and access to potable water. The Panama Canal saw daily transits fall from 38 to 24 ships, disrupting global trade and spiking commodity prices. South and Southeast Asia have also been impacted, with drought suppressing the production of staple crops such as rice, coffee and sugar in Thailand and India. Additionally, in India, monsoon variability and groundwater over-extraction is damaging agriculture.
Impacts on transport and global trade
Reduced Panama Canal transit capacity had ripple effects on global shipping and supply chains. Drought has also disrupted river navigation on rivers such as the Amazon and Zambezi, disrupting commerce and livelihoods.
Toll on health and the economy
Drought is raising health concerns, with increased cases of malnutrition, diarrhoea, cholera and dehydration, especially among women, children, the elderly and people with chronic illness. Currently, global annual losses from drought exceed $300bn, and are expected to double by 2035. Studies have found that 77.6% of the Earth’s land has grown permanently drier, with dryland areas swelling by 4.3 million km². The estimated cost of land restoration is projected to be approximately $2.6tn by 2030.
The root causes driving water scarcity are climate change and global warming, with long-term global temperature increases worsening soil evaporation and moisture loss. The 2023-24 El Niño event intensified drought, in Africa, Latin America and Asia in particular.
Unsustainable land and water management
Over-extraction of groundwater, deforestation, irrigation and land degradation have increased the vulnerability of regions facing drought, and many countries still lack proactive national drought strategies and early warning systems.
Report recommendations
The report proposes a multi-level, multi-sectoral response, including:
Long-term implications
Drylands now cover ~40% of non-Antarctic land – nearly a third larger than India – and account for massive GDP losses, especially in Africa and Asia. The OECD projects drought-related economic costs to have more than doubled since 2000, potentially rising 110% by 2035. Land degradation continues to expand by ~1 million km² per year, accelerating desertification and ecological collapse. However, restoring just one billion hectares could generate up to $1.8tn annually, creating jobs, and reinforcing food, climate and biodiversity resilience.
This UNCCD report marks a turning point – highlighting that drought is no longer a localised hazard, but a systemic global risk, crossing boundaries and systems. It entwines the water-energy-food nexus, undermines economic stability and exacerbates social inequalities. Yet, it also presents a blueprint for transformation through proactive, inclusive governance, science-backed early warning, nature-based and infrastructural adaptation, and scaled financing – including crucial private-sector engagement.
While the COP16 commitments serve as an initial structure for guidance, the real test lies in implementation – the deployment of early warning systems, advances in NbS, the shifting of investment flows, the empowerment of vulnerable communities, the forging of legally binding frameworks, and the mainstreaming of drought resilience across sectors and regions.
This Drought Hotspots report is a clarion call – not just highlighting dramatic drought intensification across continents, but also rigorously framing how to respond. It presents policy foresight and practical solutions: early detection, ecological restoration, governance reform, finance mobilisation and community inclusion. The window for action remains narrow. Global cooperation and resolute action between now and COP17 are vital to halt the march towards irreversible land degradation and safeguard resilience.
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]]>The post Young Water Professionals: The energy and future of IWA appeared first on The Source.
]]>Over the past few years, we’ve seen a surge of young professionals eager to shape the future of water. The YWP Steering Committee, elected by the IWA YWP Community every two years, has been part of our decision-making structure since the 2000s. IWA now has more than 50 active YWP Country Chapters worldwide – from China to South Africa, Brazil to the UK, and, recently, new chapters in Ireland, Mali and Burkina Faso. Each chapter is driven by IWA YWP members who are determined to influence water governance, management, innovation and sustainability – locally and internationally.
It’s hard not to be inspired by the level of commitment our YWPs demonstrate. Whether organising national conferences, hosting technical workshops, participating in global dialogues or designing community-led initiatives, these young leaders are redefining what it means to be a water professional today.
In June, I had the pleasure of hearing about the 3rd IWA YWP Canada Conference, which brought together more than 200 participants, including professionals, academics and students. It featured panels, technical sessions and a global hackathon, where five international teams presented innovative solutions to water challenges in their home countries. This type of collaboration and innovation is exactly what our sector needs and is something IWA’s YWPs are uniquely equipped to deliver.
Take, for example, the Iberoamerican IWA YWP Chapters. This growing coalition of Spanish-speaking YWP chapters emerged from a simple, yet persistent, challenge: the lack of technical content available in their native language. Their solution? A dynamic series of Spanish-language webinars, co-organised across countries, bridging linguistic and geographic divides to deliver relevant and inclusive knowledge to their peers. When empowered, YWPs don’t just participate – they lead, create and solve.
Alongside our growing chapter network, IWA has launched flagship programmes to nurture young leadership in the sector. The IWA & Grundfos Youth Action for SDG 6 Fellowship supports exceptional young professionals working on water and sanitation, amplifying youth voices in global policy dialogues. Meanwhile, the IWA LeaP leadership programme for YWPs brings together early-career professionals from across the world for a year-long journey focused on leadership development, strategic thinking and personal growth. Both programmes are part of IWA’s commitment to equip young leaders with the tools and platforms to influence global water governance.
Looking ahead, I am especially excited about the Emerging Water Leaders Forum at the IWA Water and Development Congress & Exhibition in Bangkok, in December – an initiative that will bring together young professionals from across the globe to engage in a powerful learning and networking experience. The Forum is an event led by YWPs for YWPs. Meanwhile, planning is well under way for the 2026 IWA European YWP Conference in Milan, Italy, where we anticipate another milestone gathering for our YWP community.
IWA believes that the YWP Community is a strategic asset, integral to our Association’s Strategic and Operational Plans. We cannot talk about the future of water without the voices, ideas and leadership of young professionals at the table.
As President, I am committed to ensuring that YWPs remain front and centre in our journey. That means not only recognising their contributions, but also actively creating the platforms, opportunities and support systems they need to thrive. The future belongs to those who prepare for it today.
To our YWPs – thank you. Your work reminds us that the future of water is not something distant. It’s already here – and it’s in good hands.
Hamanth Kasan, President, IWA
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]]>The post Delivering a drought response appeared first on The Source.
]]>Articles in this edition span the spectrum of actions needed to contribute to water security in the face of widening and deepening concerns around drought.
Monitoring provides the essential foundations for action. In the case of drought, another report, from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (see News), reviews current practices of drought impact monitoring. Water quantity monitoring covers how volumes present compared to historical records. This core need has to be connected with monitoring of the impacts of drought across sectors such as domestic water supply, agriculture and the environment. Drought is a complex, slow-onset issue and an understanding of impacts is key to reducing vulnerability.
There is a broader need for institutional strengthening and coordinated action across the sector. Dealing with drought in this context is part of wider national ambitions and outlook. Here we see the importance of initiatives such as Indonesia’s National Water Self-Sufficiency Initiative. This aims to almost double the number of households with access to piped water over a five-year period. Investment is important here, but so too is a focus on operational excellence.
Other aspects can be layered on top of this sector outlook. This includes diversifying water sources. A changing climate and therefore prospect for drought is a long-term concern, but, as the UNCCD report makes clear, needs are very real today. Rainwater harvesting (see p26)can quickly enhance security locally. It also provides a focus for education and awareness-raising.
Specific tools and approaches can also help the sector navigate the path from the current day into the localised, uncertain future. Here we see the value in the use of scenarios, such as the approach being deployed in Sydney (p37). There, scenarios are helping make clear the value in pursuing different strategies, such as increasing investment in catchment management, implementing use of green, blue and grey features in urban areas and agriculture, and envisioning the local bulk water supplier as a manager of a carbon-positive catchment.
Another opportunity is to draw on the wisdom of Indigenous knowledge – as is explored on p13, looking at the case of New Zealand. Indeed, this article sets out an approach that actively builds partnerships to bring together the best of what science and Indigenous knowledge have to offer.
Alongside that spectrum of options, a further key to unlocking water security is to exchange experiences on advancing our sector. As the articles on the Water and Development Congress & Exhibition (p30), ASPIRE (p13) and Water Horizons (p44) events show, IWA is certainly playing its part in delivering a drought response.
Keith Hayward, Editor
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]]>The post Aqualunar Challenge advances Moon water option appeared first on The Source.
]]>SonoChem System
The SonoChem System, developed by Gloucestershire-based Naicker Scientific, was awarded the grand prize of £150,000. This groundbreaking innovation uses microwaves and ultrasound to purify water extracted from the Moon’s frozen soil, a crucial step in supporting long-term lunar missions.
Led by Lolan Naicker, Naicker Scientific’s SonoChem System employs ultrasonic technology to generate millions of microbubbles in melted lunar ice. These microbubbles create extreme temperatures and pressures that break down contaminants, producing safe, drinkable water for astronauts.
“Imagine digging up the soil in your back garden in the middle of winter and trying to extract frozen water to drink,” said Lolan Naicker. “Now imagine doing it in an environment that is -200°C, a nearly perfect vacuum, under low gravity, and with very little electrical power. That’s what we will have to overcome on the Moon. If we can make the SonoChem System work there, we can make it work anywhere, whether that’s on Mars’ glaciers, or here on Earth in regions where accessing clean water is still a challenge.”
FRANK
First runner-up was FRANK (Filtered Regolith Aqua Neutralisation Kit), developed by RedSpace, which was awarded £100,000.
FRANK uses a three-stage approach to deliver a continuous flow of drinking-grade water in a lunar environment that would first heat the lunar soil (regolith) sample in a sealed chamber to separate off volatile gases and leave a liquid of water, methanol and regolith fragments. The liquid is passed through a membrane to remove solid particles. The remaining liquid is distilled to separate the methanol from the water.
AquaLunarPure
AquaLunarPure, developed by a team from Queen Mary University of London, UK, won the second runner-up prize and was awarded £50,000.
The team’s system transforms melted lunar ice into ‘supercritical water’, a state in which oxidation removes all contaminants in a single step. A reactor would first heat lunar ice to leave behind dust and rock particles, then heat it to more than 373°C at 220 bars of pressure to turn it into ‘supercritical water’ – not a solid, a liquid or a gas, but a fourth state that appears like a thick vapour in which oxidation will remove all the contaminants in one step. Direct heating and insulation contribute to the high energy efficiency of this reactor, compared with current state of the art technologies.
A joint project between the UK Space Agency and the Canadian Space Agency, the Aqualunar Challenge aims to find innovative solutions to water purification on the Moon and here on Earth. UK Science Minister Lord Vallance said: “The Aqualunar Challenge was set up to overcome one of the most significant obstacles to humans surviving on the Moon or other planets – the availability of clean drinking water. By teaming up with our Canadian partners and harnessing the wealth of talent and creativity found across the UK, the challenge has uncovered a range of new ideas, including Naicker Scientific’s SonoChem system. Many of these ideas could not only fuel future space exploration, but also help improve lives and solve water shortages here on Earth – mitigating the impacts of climate change as we work towards a net zero future.”
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]]>The post Utility horizons – building a resilient water future appeared first on The Source.
]]>‘Water Horizons 2025: Transforming Utilities for a Resilient, Net Zero Future’ is a new conference on the IWA calendar, taking place on 24-25 September in London, UK. Organised by IWA Conferences Ltd, this event will bring together global leaders in the water sector to explore the latest innovations and strategies for building resilient, sustainable water utilities, with a particular focus on opportunities for technology, digital transformation and regulatory compliance.
“The technological opportunities for digital water are exploding, but there are still challenges in taking them from research and practice through to implementation,” says Janelcy Alferes, who is R&D project leader monitoring technology and digital water, WaterKlimaatHub – VITO, Belgium, and Chair of IWA’s Specialist Group on Instrumentation, Control and Automation (ICA). “This conference will be a great platform to discuss this.”
Facilitating the digital transformation
IWA is playing an important role in this, and Water Horizons 2025 is the latest part of the Association’s drive to help water practitioners grasp the very best that digital technologies can offer, to deliver sustainable, smart and efficient water systems.
“IWA is already doing a lot to facilitate this,” says Alferes. “It really recognises the value of digital solutions and how it can support many aspects of water management.”
She references IWA’s impressive Digital Programme, the three editions of IWA Digital Water Summits in Bilbao, Spain, and IWA’s Specialist Groups that are promoting the use of digital solutions. She says: “There is a lot of support for really pushing the idea of finding digital solutions to improve our water systems. And there is increasing interest in finding synergies between different Specialist Groups.”
As Chair of IWA’s Specialist Group on ICA, Alferes is conscious of the potential for IWA’s membership to come together to develop opportunities and enhance the role and power of existing and emerging technologies.
Advanced technologies
Focusing on how water utilities can future-proof their services while advancing their climate and carbon goals, Water Horizons 2025 will open with the theme of ‘Technology opportunities, digital transformation and the regulatory horizon’. This first day of the two-day programme will explore how utilities are embracing advanced technologies – from AI and IoT to smart water networks and digital twins – to drive operational efficiency, compliance and system resilience.
The second day will build on the theme of day one, focusing on ‘Building resilient water systems and advancing net zero solutions’, shifting the focus to implementation and how utilities can apply innovation to reduce emissions and build low-carbon, circular water systems.
Alferes sees Water Horizons 2025 as an opportunity to look at the new technologies that are available and focus on how they can be used most effectively to improve water systems and the management of water resources in applications across drinking water, wastewater and industrial processes.
“It’s about how to make use of the technology,” she explains. “I’ll cover different aspects, ranging from sensors to digital twins and support tools, and how to bring those tools forward to help support decision-making.”
Stakeholder engagement
Alferes also highlights the importance of collaboration between stakeholders, and the need to avoid looking at water in isolation. She says: “If we are to face the challenges that we have today and those that we will have tomorrow, we really need to consider water as a part of our ecosystems, and to consider the important links between water and energy, food and agriculture.
“We can’t just consider water in a silo. We need to collaborate with the different stakeholders – with the water utilities, the technology providers, researchers, and the community and municipalities. It is important to take into account the different parts of the puzzle.”
There are still gaps that need to be bridged to enable digital water to be as effective as it can be, she adds, and much of that is to do with taking research from theory into practice and facilitating cross-sector collaboration and learning.
“We need efforts to be made in different directions, but I think we are going along the right track,” says Alferes. “My interest is in helping to bridge these gaps and enabling research and innovation to be applicable in practice.”
Water Horizons 2025 provides the ideal opportunity, whether you are starting out on your net zero journey or looking to network and share experiences with others building resilience into their systems, to future-proof a water sector facing the challenges of climate change, urbanisation, and increasing population and consumption.
The challenges may be great, but, if we work smarter, the rewards will be too.
Join us at ‘Water Horizons 2025: Transforming Utilities for a Resilient, Net Zero Future’ to be part of this transformation.
More information
Visit www.waterhorizonsevents.org/home?event-key=wh2025 to find out more about ‘Water Horizons 2025: Transforming Utilities for a Resilient, Net Zero Future’.
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]]>The post Building sovereignty through innovation and reform appeared first on The Source.
]]>Water is more than a basic necessity; it is the foundation of life, essential for public health, vital to economic development, and intrinsically tied to Indonesia’s national identity. From the verdant highlands of Papua to the dynamic urban sprawl of Jakarta, water connects the archipelago. It sustains agriculture, enables industry, nourishes families and balances ecosystems. Yet, in an era marked by climate volatility, urbanisation and social disparity, our approach to water management must evolve. It is imperative that we treat water not only as a service, but also as a strategic priority to be governed equitably and sustainably.
This is the essence of Swasembada Air, Indonesia’s bold National Water Self-Sufficiency Initiative, launched under the leadership of President Prabowo Subianto for the 2024–2029 period. It marks a fundamental shift. Water is no longer just about infrastructure; it is a national mission underpinning sovereignty, social justice and long-term resilience.
Ambitious task ahead
The challenge is significant. In 2023, only 22% of Indonesian households – approximately 16 million connections – had access to piped water. Meeting the 2029 national target of 40% coverage will require connecting an additional 13 million households and mobilising more than IDR 195tn ($12bn) in investment. Yet capital alone is not enough. Achieving water sovereignty demands a paradigm shift in governance, multi-stakeholder collaboration and shared national commitment.
This is our opportunity to reimagine how we finance, manage and value water. Sovereignty over water is not an abstraction. It is a practical, achievable objective that can secure a fairer and more resilient Indonesia for generations to come.
A new chapter in Indonesia’s water story
Expanding water access requires more than pipelines and treatment plants – it requires a change in mindset. Water must be viewed not as a commodity, but as a human right and a long-term investment in public wellbeing, environmental stewardship and economic equity.
Arief Wisnu Cahyono, Chair of Persatuan Perusahaan Air Minum Seluruh Indonesia (PERPAMSI – the Indonesian Water Supply Association) and Managing Director of Perumda Surya Sembada (Surabaya), emphasises: “To achieve water sovereignty, we must reduce our reliance on central and local budgets. Courage to innovate is essential.”
Signs of innovation are already emerging. While the Indonesian water sector holds approximately IDR 40tn ($2.5bn) in assets, it remains overly dependent on state financing. With only IDR 6tn ($370m) in liabilities, there is substantial fiscal room for alternative financing models.
Regional water utilities (BUMD Air Minum) are exploring new funding pathways, including:
These financing innovations do more than close funding gaps – they foster institutional maturity, improve governance, and enhance trust in service delivery.
Surabaya and Bogor lead the way
Cities such as Surabaya and Bogor are exemplars of strategic investment and operational excellence. Perumda Surya Sembada (Surabaya) has secured IDR 160bn ($9.8m) in funding, while Perumda Tirta Pakuan (Bogor) has mobilised IDR 170.4bn ($10.5m) – both through PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur, a state-owned infrastructure financing institution.
These cases demonstrate that financially sound and well-managed utilities can attract capital and channel it into tangible service improvements. More importantly, they signal a shift from expansion to resilience – building systems that are not only broader, but also cleaner, smarter and more sustainable.
Rino Indira Gusniawan, Secretary General of PERPAMSI and Managing Director of Perumda Tirta Pakuan, says: “Our ambition is not just about water access. It’s about building a system that endures.” The takeaway is clear: when utilities are technically capable, well governed and open to innovation, they become catalysts for national progress.

Rebuilding water governance
Realising water sovereignty requires structural reform. Many regional utilities continue to face significant challenges. Between 2019 and 2023, technical coverage declined from 30.66% to 26.77%, while administrative coverage dropped from 22.91% to 22.17%. Connection growth remains sluggish, averaging only 500,000 to 700,000 new households annually.
Key issues include infrastructure leaks, fragmented mandates and limited service outreach. These challenges, however, are surmountable through targeted reforms.
Dr Subekti, Executive Director of PERPAMSI, outlines a transformative agenda:
Such reforms will lay the foundation for accountable, efficient and future-proofed water services nationwide.
Driving collaborative progress
At the heart of these reforms is PERPAMSI. With 519 members (445 public utilities and 74 private sector partners), we see it as Southeast Asia’s largest and most dynamic water network.
PERPAMSI is more than a professional association – it is an engine for capacity building and systemic transformation. Key programmes include:
Through these initiatives, even the smallest utilities gain access to national support and global insight.
Building a water-secure nation
Indonesia stands at a pivotal moment. One path sustains the status quo: fragmented systems and inequitable access. The other path – Swasembada Air – envisions universal access to clean, safe and reliable water. To walk this path, collaboration is essential. Public utilities, government bodies, the private sector, academia and media must align under the pentahelix model – a five-pronged approach to holistic development.
PERPAMSI, supported by global platforms such as IWA, the Southeast Asia Water Utility Network, and UN-Habitat’s Global Water Operators’ Partnerships Alliance, is leading this movement.
Indonesia is not merely catching up – it is charting new ground. When commitment meets creativity, transformation follows. This is more than a policy. It is a national mission. One rooted in dignity, equity, and a promise: that water will no longer be a privilege, but a universal right. Because water is not just a utility – it is life, sovereignty and our collective future.
The authors: Agus Sunara is Expert Advisor, Ahmad Zazili is Head of Magazine and Website, and Nur Azizah is Secretary of PERPAMSI
Indonesia joins IWA as a Governing Member
Strengthening IWA’s international reach, Indonesia has joined the Association as a Governing Member (GM).
At the heart of IWA’s efforts to advance a vision of a water wise world, GMs are vital to IWA’s work at national and regional level. GMs provide a country focus, convening people locally to share best practice and explore new ways of innovating water solutions, nurturing and growing the IWA network, and sharing the latest science, technology and best practice from across the sector.
IWA’s 70 GMs reflect the diversity of the water sector at country level, mirroring the breadth and strength of IWA’s global network. They strengthen the water industry by bridging divides between sectors and disciplines to create real change in water policy, practice and management on the ground.
Led by committees of representatives from across the water sector, GMs, importantly, convene for the IWA Governing Assembly and are supported in their work by access to the Connect Plus platform, facilitating interaction among individual members and creating opportunities to generate ideas and share best practice.
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]]>The post Shaping Sydney’s future resilience with scenarios appeared first on The Source.
]]>WaterNSW is a state-owned corporation in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, responsible for capturing, storing and delivering two-thirds of the bulk water used in NSW, including managing Greater Sydney’s bulk water supply and drinking water catchments.
WaterNSW partnered with the University of Technology Sydney Institute for Sustainable Futures (UTS-ISF) to help protect drinking water catchments for future generations, particularly in the face of megatrends such as digital transformation, climate change and population growth.
Through collaborative workshops, UTS-ISF’s expert knowledge across a range of fields (including water, energy, smart cities and climate change) and WaterNSW’s on-ground experience were combined within six detailed scenarios that explore plausible futures for Greater Sydney’s water catchments.
This multidisciplinary project demonstrates effective integration of creative and critical thinking to expand the scope of traditional modelling, which has proven essential for approaching complex issues such as water security. These scenarios are aiding planning and decision-making today to prepare for an uncertain future and show how water authorities can take steps to prepare for both challenging and positive aspects of the future.
Explaining the research
Development of a series of future scenarios for Greater Sydney’s drinking water catchments was achieved through a three-phase project approach.
The first phase involved a literature review and horizon scan undertaken by UTS-ISF to identify megatrends and drivers on global and local scales that could impact Greater Sydney’s water catchment systems.
In the second phase, WaterNSW experts across a range of interests participated in two collaborative workshops facilitated by UTS-ISF to first envision possible futures and then help develop future scenarios.
The methodology combined the qualitative outputs from the stakeholder workshops with the quantitative spatial modelling of land use and land cover (LULC) to produce future scenarios defined by both narratives and LULC maps of the future in 2040 and 2060. This also included the baseline scenario considered in 2019 and projected to 2040 and 2060. This enabled a comparison of each scenario to the expected future. Thirty years of historical catchment LULC transitions were modelled and projected forward from 2019 to give future LULC maps in 2040 and 2060. The anticipated effects of climate change as forecast for NSW in Australian Regional Climate Modelling were built into this baseline scenario.
After constructing the baseline spatial model and adjusting this to represent future scenarios, the scenarios were presented as a collation of their respective narrative, modelling approach and spatial outputs. These outputs are GIS maps that can be used in water quality modelling. The final scenarios encompass a range of plausible outcomes for Greater Sydney’s water catchment futures, characterised by differing catchment, carbon, and treatment results.

Scenarios
Three of the six scenarios developed are summarised here.
Scenario 1: Envisages increased investment in catchment management as a key strategy for providing safe drinking water to Greater Sydney. This is achieved through collaboration between the State Government, WaterNSW, Aboriginal Traditional Owners, local communities and industries. A long-term commitment to the value of catchment management is a key driver of this scenario. The resulting improvements in water quality and catchment health will positively influence liveability, resilience, ecology, and economic opportunities in catchment areas. Population growth remains at the baseline rate, but will become more condensed in catchment areas, resulting in decreased disturbance to land and increased reforestation.
This scenario emphasises the importance of community engagement and the role of Traditional Owners in managing and protecting water resources. By fostering collaboration and shared responsibility, this scenario aims to create a resilient and sustainable water catchment system that can adapt to future challenges.
Scenario 2: Is characterised by the implementation of green, blue and grey features in urban and agricultural development. Shifting community demands for integrated green spaces, water and localised industries increase pressure on catchment management. Government engagement in response to the increased cost of living in Sydney results in the development of regional towns into new urban centres, driven by a new high-speed rail network. The urban footprint in Scenario 2 is expected to remain consistent with baseline rates. However, urban densification is directed towards rural centres, as opposed to continued rapid expansion in south-western Sydney. This will coincide with continued flexible work-from-home schedules. This projection is already being realised, with the Australian Government High Speed Rail Authority having announced phase one of the east coast high-speed rail network (Australian Government, 2024).
This scenario highlights the importance of integrating green infrastructure into urban planning to enhance resilience and sustainability. More sophisticated water management is critical to supporting liveability in these areas and downstream drinking water quality supplied to Greater Sydney. Green infrastructure, such as parks, green roofs and urban forests, can help mitigate the impact of climate change, improve air and water quality, and provide recreational spaces for communities.
Scenario 3: Envisions WaterNSW as a manager of a carbon-positive catchment. This is facilitated by government incentives that support Australia achieving zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Renewable energy and biodiversity restoration processes enable improved carbon capture and water quality, as well as providing carbon offsets within the catchment area. Reforms to land management are supported by the public as both economic and environmental profit is acquired. This scenario creates new job opportunities in carbon and renewables sectors, leading to a slight increase in population density in rural centres. This, however, does not increase the urban footprint as a result of the carbon-positive initiatives implemented.
Achieving a carbon-positive catchment involves a combination of strategies, including reforestation, wetland restoration and the adoption of renewable energy technologies. These initiatives not only help mitigate climate change, but also enhance the resilience of water catchments by improving water quality and biodiversity. Public support and participation are crucial in this scenario, as community involvement in conservation and sustainability efforts can drive positive change and ensure the long-term success of these initiatives.

How the research is being used
While no future scenario can be expected to unfold exactly as described, they are useful tools for considering previously unexperienced conditions and testing potential solutions. WaterNSW is already acting on Scenario 3, which addresses a carbon-positive catchment. They are investigating ways to generate revenue from carbon sequestration, biodiversity regeneration, and supporting the low-carbon transition through renewable energy generation, transmission and storage projects.
Across the scenarios, the outputs produced are aiding planning and decision-making by water authorities today to protect drinking water for future generations. The scenarios provide a framework for exploring different adaptation pathways and identifying potential risks and opportunities for core business priorities. By considering a range of plausible futures, water authorities can develop more robust and resilient strategies that are better equipped to handle uncertainty and change.
The collaborative and multidisciplinary approach used in this project demonstrates the value of integrating diverse perspectives and expertise in resilience planning. By involving stakeholders with various perspectives and incorporating qualitative and quantitative methods, the project has produced comprehensive and well-rounded scenarios that address the complexity of water catchment management. This approach can serve as a valuable model for other regions facing similar challenges and can help inform future resilience planning efforts.
The authors: Dr Simon Fane is Research Director and Associate Professor at UTS-ISF;
Dr Ann-Marie Rohlfs is Water Science Lead, WaterNSW; and Ebony Heslop is Research Principal at UTS-ISF
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