By examining the intersection of climatic drivers and underlying vulnerabilities, this report aims to reinforce the continued importance of improving drought monitoring, planning and response capabilities, while providing actionable insights for researchers, policymakers and humanitarian organisations working to address drought resilience. 

The report finds that the impacts of climate change, including rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and the 2023-24 El Niño event, are the primary drivers of the droughts that have been experienced in recent years, amplifying soil moisture deficits and evaporation, and transforming regional water deficits into systemic disruptions.  

Major drought hotspots 

The report identifies several regions under acute stress, including: Eastern and Southern Africa, where more than 90 million people are facing acute hunger; Somalia where ~43,000 drought-related deaths were recorded in 2022 and 25% of the country’s population faced crisis-level food insecurity by early 2025; and Zambia, where river flows have dropped to 20% of average flows and the Kariba Dam dropped to just 7% capacity, impacting hydropower supplies resulting in daily blackouts, disrupting healthcare, industry and daily life.  

In Turkey, groundwater depletion has resulted in sinkholes, threatening infrastructure and ecosystems. Meanwhile, in Latin America, Amazon watersheds hit historic lows in 2023-24, precipitating mass fish and river dolphin deaths, and compromising transport and access to potable water. The Panama Canal saw daily transits fall from 38 to 24 ships, disrupting global trade and spiking commodity prices. South and Southeast Asia have also been impacted, with drought suppressing the production of staple crops such as rice, coffee and sugar in Thailand and India. Additionally, in India, monsoon variability and groundwater over-extraction is damaging agriculture. 

Impacts on transport and global trade 

Reduced Panama Canal transit capacity had ripple effects on global shipping and supply chains. Drought has also disrupted river navigation on rivers such as the Amazon and Zambezi, disrupting commerce and livelihoods.  

Toll on health and the economy 

Drought is raising health concerns, with increased cases of malnutrition, diarrhoea, cholera and dehydration, especially among women, children, the elderly and people with chronic illness. Currently, global annual losses from drought exceed $300bn, and are expected to double by 2035. Studies have found that 77.6% of the Earth’s land has grown permanently drier, with dryland areas swelling by 4.3 million km². The estimated cost of land restoration is projected to be approximately $2.6tn by 2030. 

The root causes driving water scarcity are climate change and global warming, with long-term global temperature increases worsening soil evaporation and moisture loss. The 2023-24 El Niño event intensified drought, in Africa, Latin America and Asia in particular.  

Unsustainable land and water management  

Over-extraction of groundwater, deforestation, irrigation and land degradation have increased the vulnerability of regions facing drought, and many countries still lack proactive national drought strategies and early warning systems.  

Report recommendations 

The report proposes a multi-level, multi-sectoral response, including: 

• Early warning systems and monitoring – deploying real-time drought and impact monitoring incorporating meteorology and socioeconomic data.  

• Support systems such as Africa’s sand and dust storm warnings and data from the International Drought Resilience Observatory (IDRO).  

• Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) – emphasising watershed restoration, agroforestry, sustainable grazing, reforestation, and groundwater replenishment.  

• Infrastructure and water management – expanding desalination, wastewater reuse, aquifer recharge, and resilient water storage systems. Along with decentralised energy systems to reduce dependence on hydropower in drought-prone regions. 

• Governance and policy reform – pushing for national drought policies that are proactive, inclusive (including young people, women and Indigenous communities), and cross-sectoral.  

• Finance and private sector participation – encouraging incentives and regulation to shift subsidies to sustainable land use, agriculture, and water management. 

• Responses to the strategic outcomes of COP16 – including the launch of the World Drought Atlas and IDRO, and the leveraging of AI to improve global drought risk tracking. 

Long-term implications 

Drylands now cover ~40% of non-Antarctic land – nearly a third larger than India – and account for massive GDP losses, especially in Africa and Asia. The OECD projects drought-related economic costs to have more than doubled since 2000, potentially rising 110% by 2035. Land degradation continues to expand by ~1 million km² per year, accelerating desertification and ecological collapse. However, restoring just one billion hectares could generate up to $1.8tn annually, creating jobs, and reinforcing food, climate and biodiversity resilience.  

This UNCCD report marks a turning point – highlighting that drought is no longer a localised hazard, but a systemic global risk, crossing boundaries and systems. It entwines the water-energy-food nexus, undermines economic stability and exacerbates social inequalities. Yet, it also presents a blueprint for transformation through proactive, inclusive governance, science-backed early warning, nature-based and infrastructural adaptation, and scaled financing – including crucial private-sector engagement. 

While the COP16 commitments serve as an initial structure for guidance, the real test lies in implementation – the deployment of early warning systems, advances in NbS, the shifting of investment flows, the empowerment of vulnerable communities, the forging of legally binding frameworks, and the mainstreaming of drought resilience across sectors and regions. 

This Drought Hotspots report is a clarion call – not just highlighting dramatic drought intensification across continents, but also rigorously framing how to respond. It presents policy foresight and practical solutions: early detection, ecological restoration, governance reform, finance mobilisation and community inclusion. The window for action remains narrow. Global cooperation and resolute action between now and COP17 are vital to halt the march towards irreversible land degradation and safeguard resilience. 

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‘Global research agenda for antimicrobial resistance in human health’ is the World Health Organization’s (WHO) latest research agenda aimed at providing guidance for progress on antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The publication highlights the improvements in water, sanitation and hygiene services (WASH) – along with wastewater management – that will be critical for the prevention of infection and a reduction in the spread of AMR. To address this, the new research agenda states two (out of a total of 40 priorities) for ‘WASH in communities’ and ‘WASH in health care settings’. These are:

• To investigate the impact, contribution, utility, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of interventions to ensure safely managed WASH and waste management practices in community settings to reduce the burden and drivers of AMR, such as unnecessary antibiotic use for diarrhoeal diseases in low- and middle-income countries.
• To investigate implementation strategies for WASH-related interventions in health care settings (including ensuring access to safely managed water and sanitation, safe hand hygiene, safe management of waste and environmental cleaning), and assess their impact, acceptability, equity, and cost-effectiveness on the burden and transmission of resistant health care associated infections and antimicrobial medicine prescribing across socioeconomic settings.

Further water related research priorities include the investigation of the factors that are driving colonisation and infection, including sanitation infrastructure, and the identification of optimal surveillance methods to generate reliable data on AMR.

Progressive agenda

A comprehensive work outlining top research priorities for tackling AMR, the agenda focuses on infections caused by drug-resistant bacteria and fungi using robust validated methods from a list of systematically identified research topics.

Grounded in the Global Action Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance, a resolution endorsed by the 68th World Health Assembly in 2015, this research agenda gives particular focus to the Global Action Plan’s objective to strengthen knowledge and evidence through surveillance and research. In addition, it responds to WHO’s mandate to develop a global public health research agenda that fills key gaps in knowledge around AMR.

Global urgency

AMR poses a considerable threat to human health, with an estimated 4.95 million deaths associated with bacterial AMR in 2019 alone. Mortality rates from infections with resistant organisms impact low- and middle-income countries disproportionately. In addition to this serious cost to human health, AMR is also associated with substantial costs to the global economy. This is predicted to reach $100 trillion by 2050 if no action is taken, according to the 2016 report of the Review on Antimicrobial Resistance titled ‘Tackling drug-resistant infections globally: final report and recommendations’. A further report in 2024 titled ‘Towards specific commitments and action in the response to antimicrobial resistance: recommendations for consideration by UN Member States’ states that treating people with resistant bacterial infections may cost $412 billion annually by 2035, with an additional $443 billion per year in productivity losses.

To address these concerns, the WHO AMR report calls for more research, along with the optimisation of current tools to support the implementation of evidence-based policies and interventions for AMR, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

Research agenda goals

The aim of WHO’s AMR research agenda is to identify and give priority to research topics with the greatest impact on mitigating AMR in the human health sector. Critical for the guidance of policymakers, researchers, funders, industry and civil society – and necessary for the generation of new evidence to inform AMR policies and interventions – this report is global in scope and focuses on AMR in the human health sectors. Particular attention is given to infections caused by the WHO bacterial priority pathogens, including drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and the WHO fungal priority pathogens, such as Candida auris, Aspergillus fumigatus and Cryptococcus neoformans.

The research agenda was developed through an adapted Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative method, in close collaboration with a multidisciplinary Research Agenda Expert Group on AMR. In the first phase, 2340 knowledge gaps were identified through a systematic search of peer-reviewed and grey literature, screening 8409 documents published in the past 10 years. In the second phase, with technical input from a multidisciplinary Research Agenda Expert Group and based on input from a global consultation, these knowledge gaps were further consolidated into 175 research topics.

In the final phase, the Research Agenda Expert Group was invited to assess each of the 175 research topics against five criteria: filling critical knowledge gaps; answerability and feasibility by 2030; potential for translation into policy; impact on mitigating AMR; and promoting health equity. A research priority score accounting for the opinion of all individual experts was calculated to identify the top 40 research priorities, with 33 pertaining to AMR in bacteria and fungi and seven relating to drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Continuity of learning

Aiming to foster research by 2030 – in accordance with the timeline of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – and catalyse scientific interest and investment among the scientific community, WHO recommends that the current list of research priorities be further translated into tangible, concrete research proposals that are fundable and implementable in settings with limited resources.

By providing the latest guidance on priorities for research, WHO’s new research agenda plays a critical role in the evolving picture around this serious global health issue. This latest publication on AMR follows the organisation’s 2023 policy brief ‘Global research agenda for antimicrobial resistance in human health’, which became the focus of academic research in the renowned, medical journal, The Lancet, in 2024. It is likely that this new guidance will become a key focus for a range of professionals and drive progress in this growing health concern that is impacting populations across the world.

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The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) report, No Escape: On the frontlines of Climate Change, Conflict and Forced Displacement, published ahead of COP29, held in November 2024 in Azerbaijan, reports on the impact that climate change has on those displaced and in places of conflict.

Making sober reading, in addition to providing analysis of the current impact of climate change on the most vulnerable, it warns of the acceleration of conflict and displacement as a result of unfettered climate change and tells the stories of refugees tackling the devastation caused by extreme weather events and conflict today.

By putting faces to the statistics, this report challenges the notion that climate change is a problem of the future and urges decision-makers to adopt the recommendations of the report to help support those in need and avoid an escalation of conflict and displacement exacerbated by climate change.

The report finds that 75% of people forced to flee their homes live in countries with high-to-extreme exposure to climate-related hazards. And whilst billions of dollars are going into climate finance to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change, little is being invested in the countries facing the harshest impacts of climate change, many of which are countries hosting the majority of forcibly displaced people. According to the report, regions considered ‘extremely fragile’ receive on average around $2 per person in annual adaptation funding, compared to $161 per person in non-fragile states.

As the world becomes increasingly volatile, so the number of people forcibly displaced in the world due to violence, conflict and climate-related hazards has accelerated, doubling to more than 120 million people over the past 10 years, with 90 million displaced people living in countries with high-to-extreme exposure to climate-related hazards and nearly half of all forcibly displaced people faced with the challenges of both conflict and the impact of climate change.

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), over the past 10 years, weather-related disasters have caused 220 million internal displacements – equivalent to approximately 60,000 displacements per day. The report states that by 2040 the number of countries facing ‘extreme climate-related hazards’ is expected to rise from three to 65, the vast majority of which are already hosting displaced populations. Extreme heat is also predicted to rise significantly, with most refugee settlements and camps projected to experience twice as many days of dangerous heat by 2050.

The report finds that although conflict remains the primary cause of cross-border displacement, the impacts of climate change can aggravate tensions and weaken social cohesion, with climate change deepening existing inequalities. And the effect of rising temperatures on the availability of natural resources such as fresh water and productive land can further exacerbate social tensions.

Whilst the situation is dire, the UNHCR sets out a roadmap for a multi-faceted response, based both on evidence-based science and the lived experience of those who are being most affected by the impacts of conflict and climate extremes. The report demonstrates sustainable solutions to avoid worst case scenarios through integrated approaches that are ‘climate-smart, protection- and gender-centred, human rights-based, conflict-sensitive, and peace-responsive’, and explores the complex and multidimensional relationships between conflict, climate change and forced displacement and the prevailing dynamics of socio-economic and political conditions.

The report suggests approaches to help strengthen the resilience and inclusion of displaced people and their hosts and close the gaps in available resources by guiding financing decisions through a needs-based approach, concluding with recommendations for improving policies and prioritising financing for climate action and the protection of refugees.

The UNHCR’s call for action concludes with four recommendations. The first is to protect displaced people fleeing in the context of climate change impacts and disasters by applying and adapting existing legal tools, ensuring that international refugee and human rights laws, international humanitarian laws and regional mechanisms apply when the need for international protection arises in cases of displacement in the context of climate change impacts and disasters, including in fragile and conflict-affected contexts. It also urges for national and local policy frameworks to address climate change with National Adaptation Plans and National Development Plans that incorporate provisions for the protection of displaced people.

The second recommendation is for the voices and needs of displaced populations and host communities to be included in climate finance and policy decisions. The report calls for COP to recognise displacement and the protection of displaced people who are in climate vulnerable situations and enable vulnerable countries and communities to participate meaningfully in policy discussions, helping host countries to include refugees in their climate action policies and plans as a basis for funding national priorities, including national adaptation plans, nationally determined contributions, disaster risk reduction strategies and early warning systems.

The third recommendation is to invest in building climate resilience where needs are greatest, especially in fragile and conflict affected settings by ensuring that funding windows and mechanisms are available.

UNHCR calls for the mobilisation of technical assistance and institutional capacity to enable readiness to absorb, access and implement climate action finance, and ensure accountability to refugees, host countries and local communities to ensure a greater proportion of climate-sensitive and peace-responsive climate finance reaches those living on the frontlines of the climate crisis, especially in fragile and conflict-affected areas.

Finally, the report calls for an acceleration in the reduction of carbon emissions to prevent climate disaster and to avert and minimise further displacement.

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The UN’s technical brief Surging seas in a warming world: The latest science on present-day impacts and future projections of sea-level rise provides a summary of the latest science on sea-level rise (SLR), highlighting its current impact and outlining potential future scenarios at global and regional levels, with a focus on major coastal cities in the Group of Twenty (G20) countries and on the Pacific Small Island Developing States.

SLR is a subject of research that in recent years has raised alarm bells increasingly. In 2021, the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global-mean sea-level is rising at rates unprecedented in the past 3000 years because of human-induced global warming. Since then, research on climate ‘tipping points’ and ice-sheet dynamics has led scientists to warn that future SLR is likely to be accelerated and more dramatic than previously predicted.

Sea-level rise is with us now

This UN technical brief finds that SLR is affecting the lives and livelihoods of coastal communities and low-lying island nations around the world today, and is escalating. Published in the lead-up to the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference, taking place on 11-22 November in Baku, Azerbaijan, the briefing sets out in no uncertain terms that the climate actions and decisions taken by political leaders and policymakers in the coming months and years will determine how devastating the impact of SLR will be and how quickly it will intensify.

Speaking at the launch of the publication, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres asserted: “Rising seas are a crisis entirely of humanity’s making. The world must act and answer the SOS before it is too late.”

Science paints an alarming picture

This warning is backed up with growing evidence. In addition to the findings of the IPCC’s AR6 report, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported that the rate of SLR in the past 10 years has more than doubled since the first decade of satellite records, increasing from 0.21cm per year in the period 1993–2002 to 0.48cm per year in the period 2014–2023.

“Rising seas are a crisis entirely of humanity’s making”

This acceleration in SLR is primarily because of increasing rates of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, which are losing ice mass at average rates of around 270 and 150 billion tonnes per year respectively, with the seven worst years of ice loss on record all occurring in the past decade. At the same time, the ocean has absorbed more than 90% of the excess heat that has accumulated in the Earth’s system since 1971 because of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As this heat is absorbed, ocean temperatures increase and water expands, exacerbating SLR.

Ocean-warming has increased, particularly in the past two decades. According to WMO’s State of Global Climate Report 2023, sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat have reached their highest levels in observational records. It reports that it is likely that the upper 2000 metres of the ocean will continue to warm because of excess heat that has accumulated as a result of global warming – a direction of travel that may be irreversible on centennial to millennial timescales.

Between 2006 and 2018, melting land-ice contributed to around 45% of the observed change in global-mean sea-level, while seawater expansion contributed 39%. The technical briefing warns that even with net-zero emissions reached, SLR will continue because of committed ocean warming and land-ice melt caused by past emissions.

Recent studies suggest that long-term warming of 2°C could lead to the eventual loss of nearly all of Greenland, much of West Antarctica, and even vulnerable portions of East Antarctica, triggering “inexorable SLR” and committing the planet to 12–20m of SLR over millennia. Warming of 3°C could further speed up this loss to within the next few centuries, resulting in extensive coastal loss and damage, and the loss of livelihoods and assets for many coastal communities around the world.

Researchers warn that accelerated SLR has the potential to redefine the coastlines of the 21st century, risking the safety, security and sustainability of many low-lying islands, populous coastal megacities, large tropical agricultural deltas, and Arctic communities.

Coastal megacities at risk

While much of the concern regarding SLR has focused on its impact on low-elevation coastal zones, which comprise continental and island areas connected to the sea no more than 10m above mean sea-level, this briefing states that ‘relative’ SLR also threatens dozens of coastal megacities across the globe, including Bangkok, Buenos Aires, Dhaka, Guangzhou, Jakarta, Lagos, London, Los Angeles, Miami, Mumbai, New Orleans, New York City, Rio de Janeiro, Shanghai, and Tokyo.

The authors of the technical briefing warn policymakers and water management professionals that climate-driven coastal hazards and risks come not only from SLR, but also from its amplification of storm surges, tides and waves. Coastal-flood hazards and associated risks are also expected to increase as a result of local land sinking (subsidence) because of human activities such as the building of dams or groundwater and fossil fuel extraction, with their combined effects leading to infrastructure damage because of coastal flooding, saltwater intrusion into groundwater and rivers, shoreline retreat, and change to or loss of coastal ecosystems and economic sectors. The briefing states that such impacts are already creating, or are likely to create, risks to livelihoods, settlements, health and wellbeing, and food and water security.

Recommendations

To avoid the worst impacts of SLR, the briefing calls for urgent cuts in global GHG to stay within a 1.5°C long-term warming trajectory, investment in effective coastal adaptation and resilience, and improved warming systems to protect vulnerable communities.

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The United Nations (UN) 2024 Financing for Sustainable Development Report: Financing for Development at a Crossroads (FSDR 2024), a joint product of the Inter-agency Task Force on Financing for Development, which comprises more than 60 UN agencies, along with other international organisations, says financial challenges are at the heart of the world’s sustainable development crisis. It finds that debt burdens and high borrowing costs are preventing developing countries from responding to the crises they face, and calls for a massive surge in financing, without which the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will not be met.

With only six years to the 2030 deadline to achieve the SDGs, the urgency is now palpable. FSDR 2024 aims to find solutions to the development financing gap, which is now estimated at $4.2 trillion annually, up from $2.5 trillion before the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to this funding deficit, rising geopolitical tensions, climate disasters, and a global cost-of-living crisis have impacted billions of people across the globe, thwarting progress on development targets.

Summit of the Future

The authors of FSDR 2024 point to the UN Summit of the Future, in September 2024, as a crucial opportunity to change course. This has the potential to set the tone in preparation for the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4), to be held in Spain from 30 June to 3 July 2025, for which UN Member States have been given an ambitious mandate to address the financing challenges that are halting progress. FSDR 2024 aims to inform and lay preparations for FfD4, highlighting four sets of overarching questions to be addressed:

• How can the conference help close the large financing and investment gaps, at scale and with urgency, and enhance the effectiveness of spending?
• How can the conference help close gaps in the international financial architecture and support international rules for trade, investment, and finance, that are fit for purpose for today’s challenges?
• How can the conference help close credibility gaps and rebuild trust in the global partnership and multilateralism?
• How can the conference help to formulate and finance new development pathways to deliver on the SDGs and ensure that no one is left behind?

While it is agreed that financial and funding stagnation is halting progress on delivering the SDGs, the authors of FSDR 2024 believe that by unlocking new financing mechanisms it is possible to turn the tide and get the SDGs back on track.

Commitments have not been met

While climate finance has grown over time, the commitment of $100 billion of climate finance per annum by 2020 agreed at COP15, and confirmed at COP21, is yet to be met. The latest assessment of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) finds that climate finance in 2021 amounted to $89.6 billion.

FSDR 2024 notes that this financial shortfall leaves vulnerable countries at increased risk, with insufficient funding for climate change mitigation and adaptation, impacting disaster risk reduction, and creating a vicious circle that prevents many countries from investing in resilience, which in turn makes them more vulnerable to climate shocks.

The report finds that hard-won development gains are now being reversed, particularly in the world’s poorest countries. If current trends continue, the UN estimates that almost 600 million people will continue to live in extreme poverty in 2030 and beyond.

Debt and borrowing

According to the report, debt burdens and rising borrowing costs are large contributors to the crisis. Estimates are that, in the least developed countries, debt service will be $40 billion annually between 2023 and 2025, up more than 50% from 2022.

It finds that stronger and more frequent climate-related disasters account for more than half of the debt upsurge in vulnerable countries. Extreme weather events have occurred more frequently over the past few decades, while their economic and social impact have become increasingly more pronounced. The poorest countries now spend 12% of their revenues on interest payments – four times more than they spent a decade ago. This sorry state of affairs finds roughly 40% of the global population living in countries where governments spend more on interest payments than on education or health.

FSDR 2024 concludes that the window to rescue the SDGs and prevent a climate catastrophe is still open but closing rapidly. It finds that the international financial system, which was set up at the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference, is no longer fit for purpose and proposes a new coherent system that is better equipped to respond to crises, scales up investment in the SDGs through stronger multilateral development banks, and improves the global safety net for all countries. Furthermore, it identifies that the most cost-effective actions to tackle growing humanitarian needs are those that are preventative, such as investments in disaster risk reduction, peace, and security.

The SDGs are not yet out of reach, but the perfect storm of global unrest, fiscal woes, climate change, and increasing incidents of natural disaster, will demand financial astuteness on a grand scale, if the SDGs are to be met by 2030. Smart decision-making and the swift adoption of new, effective, financial models will be the keys to success, along with the political will to make FfD4 count.

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The United Nations World Water Development Report (WWDR) 2024, Water for Prosperity and Peace, was launched on 22 March, marking World Water Day. This 2024 edition of UN-Water’s flagship annual report on water issues describes how developing and maintaining a secure and equitable water future underpins prosperity and peace for all, and how poverty and inequality, social tensions, and conflict can amplify water insecurity.

Avoiding the politicisation of this controversial subject, the report calls attention to the complex and interlinked relationships between sustainable water management, prosperity, and peace, describing how progress in one area can have positive, often essential, repercussions in the others.

The authors acknowledge that, when water is scarce, polluted, or difficult to access, food security can be undermined, and livelihoods lost, with the potential for subsequent conflict. But far from discussing water conflict as an inevitable global direction of travel, the report offers a positive alternative to this bleak picture of which authorities frequently warn. In addition to recognising the global water challenges, the report offers an alternative – a positive future that embraces collaboration, discourse, new technologies, and ecological solutions that nurture health and wellbeing.

Launched annually, the United Nations WWDR focuses on a different theme each year, and gives policy recommendations to decision-makers by offering best practices and in-depth analyses. This edition gives global leaders, financiers and international corporations serious food for thought. By weighing up the potential benefits of sustainable, equitable water management against the potential humanitarian, environmental and economic risks of inaction, decision-makers are challenged to pose the question: why allow water to create conflict and risk, dividing societies and stakeholders, when it could be used as a power for peace?

Cynics may rush to call such an idea pie-in-the-sky thinking, especially in a world experiencing geopolitical unrest, the challenges of climate change, ecological destruction, population growth, and insecurity with regards to food, water, energy and economics. But the WWDR provides examples of success, explains how technologies can be transformative, and states how sustainable, equitable, forward-thinking water management could benefit people, planet and pocket.

The authors accept that there is no clear way to determine the ‘water footprint’ of prosperity. But the report is clear that water, when managed sustainably and equitably, can be a source of peace and prosperity, being the literal lifeblood of agriculture and the major socio-economic driver for billions of people. It can also prevent the displacement of people and reduce the risk of disasters from extreme weather events. Moreover, the report highlights how water has the capacity to unite people, and encourage sustainable development, climate action and regional integration, with transboundary cooperation helping to build collaborative relationships that support social cohesion, reduce the risks associated with extreme weather, and enable the costs of water management to be shared.

More specifically, the report finds that government-established transboundary river basin organisations have the ability to ‘act as connectors and active peacemakers by facilitating inclusive dialogue and participatory decision-making’. It also highlights how river basin organisations have established effective mechanisms for multi-stakeholder engagement, ‘giving voice to young people, women and concerned stakeholders’.

In addition, it finds that ‘the collaborative management of WASH services and water resources can become a peacebuilding asset’. This is as well as the benefits WASH services have on the lives of the women and girls – who are disproportionately responsible for fetching water – the greater ability it provides for them to attend school, and the benefits for health and hygiene and gender equality, which all contribute to gains for society, the environment, and the economy.

Water and conflict

The hardships of conflict are amplified through water, resulting in impacts that are multifaceted and often indirect, such as those linked to forced migration and increased exposure to health threats. And numerous challenges undermine the provision of WASH services in conflict situations.

“the report calls attention to the complex and interlinked relationships between sustainable water management, prosperity, and peace”

Risks of inaction

The report states that water deficits can currently be linked to 10% of the increase in migration worldwide, with such displacement having the potential to increase the burden on local water systems and resources. The number of migrants and displaced persons increases every year. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre 2023 Global Report on Internal Displacement revealed that, at the end of 2022, the number of internally displaced persons reached its highest level ever recorded, with 71.1 million people displaced worldwide, of which 88% was because of conflict and violence.

Clearly, a failure to address the global water crisis would have stark and destabilising consequences when one considers the latest figures from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which states that roughly half of the world’s population currently experiences severe water scarcity for at least part of the year. It also observes that, while some areas experience water scarcity a few months per year, others endure severe water scarcity year-round. While cooperation has proven benefits, out of 153 countries sharing transboundary rivers, lakes and aquifers, only 32 have 90% or more of their transboundary waters covered by operational arrangements.

A way forward

The WWDR encourages practical solutions – vulnerability mapping, early warning systems for drying conditions, investment in resilient water infrastructure, governance that includes legal and institutional arrangements to manage water security, and dispute settlement procedures.

The global scenario all too often tells of missed targets, accelerated warming, and opportunities lost as the environmental can is kicked down the road. The WWDR highlights that we are living through a pivotal moment – decision-makers can implement policies that improve water security. Failure to do so risks giving water a role in global instability.

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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report The Global Climate 2011-2020: A Decade of Acceleration punctuated the close of 2023 with the second decadal analysis of the state of the climate, including a study of the intensity of extreme weather events and their socio-economic impacts.

A collaborative work of the WMO, national meteorological and hydrological services, national statistics offices, and specialised agencies of the United Nations, the report follows the first decadal analysis, covering 2001-2010.

To gather global data, WMO Members were requested to complete a survey on countrywide temperature anomalies, covering national absolute records for daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and 24-hour total precipitation. The report notes that almost every reporting country had decadal mean temperatures for the 2011-2020 period that were above the 1981-2010 average. Only three of 99 reporting countries were below the 1981-2010 average.

Breadth of data

The value of this report is the clarity that its scope offers. By gathering and analysing extensive data over a substantive period it provides essential information for scientists and policymakers, allowing the impacts of a changing climate to be observed, considered and – critically – responded to with policies based on evidence-based science.

Tracking trends  

The findings show that the rate of climate change surged dramatically between 2011-2020. The report confirms that this was the warmest decade on record for both land and ocean, and that since the 1990s successive decades have been warmer.

The continued rise in concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) has fuelled record land and ocean temperatures and a dramatic acceleration in ice melt and sea level rise, leading the authors of the report to call for much more ambitious action to try to limit global temperature rise to no more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era.

The report charts the continued increase of atmospheric concentrations of the three major GHGs over the past decade and warns that to stabilise the climate and prevent further warming emissions must be greatly reduced.

Rates of ocean warming and acidification are increasing and marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, with the report stating that in any given year between 2011 and 2020 approximately 60% of the surface of the ocean experienced a heatwave.

Around 90% of the accumulated heat in the Earth system is stored in the ocean, which is measured through Ocean Heat Content (OHC). With the deployment of the Argo network of autonomous profiling floats, which achieved near global coverage in 2006, it is now possible to routinely measure OHC changes down to a depth of 2000 m. All data sets agree that ocean warming rates show a particularly strong increase in the past two decades.

“As a consequence of climate change, global mean sea level rise is accelerating, largely because of ocean warming and the loss of land ice mass.”

As a consequence of climate change, global mean sea level rise is accelerating, largely because of ocean warming and the loss of land ice mass. The report finds that from 2011 to 2020, sea level rose at an annual rate of 4.5 mm/yr, and glaciers that were measured around the world thinned by approximately 1m per year on average between 2011 and 2020. Greenland and Antarctica lost 38% more ice between 2011 and 2020 than during the 2001-2010 period. The significance to those working to tackle the global water crisis is that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are the largest freshwater reservoirs on Earth, storing a volume of 29.5 million km³ of frozen water. In addition, the Arctic sea ice extent continues a multi-decade decline with the seasonal mean minimum 30% below average.

Precipitation

The report highlights large regional variations in precipitation with some regions having an abnormally wet decade and others where it was abnormally dry during the same period. Long-term drought was predominant in many subtropical regions of the world, resulting in decadal average rainfall more than 10% below that of the 1951-2000 reference period. These regions include the south-western United States, the western Mediterranean, eastern Australia south of the tropics, southern Africa, and central Chile.

In contrast, the decade shows extreme wet conditions across most of Asia. The year 2020 was exceptionally wet in parts of China, particularly over the Yangtze catchment, which had its wettest year of the post-1961 period, contributing to substantial flooding.

Large parts of Australia experienced severe drought from 2017 to 2019, when the three-year rainfall in many parts of the eastern interior was the lowest on record.

Disaster management

An important positive trend is that the number of casualties from extreme weather and climate events has gone down substantially over time. A major contributor to this decrease has been improved early warning systems, driven by improvements in forecasting, coupled with improved disaster management. The 2011-2020 decade was the first since 1950 when there was not a single short-term event with 10,000 deaths or more. However, economic losses from extreme weather and climate events have continued to increase.

Socio-economic impacts

The report finds that extreme weather events have had devastating impacts over the decade, particularly on food security, national development, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

In addition, the reports states that: “Virtually every attribution study carried out on an extreme heat event in the decade 2011-2020 found that the likelihood of the event increased significantly because of anthropogenic climate change [with] heatwaves responsible for the highest number of human casualties, while tropical cyclones caused the most economic damage.” It goes on to call for synergistic action on the SDGs and the targets of the Paris Agreement, “whereby advancements in one can lead to improvements in the other”.

More information

See: https://wmo.int/publication-series/global-climate-2011-2020-decade-of-acceleration

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Published in June, the World Bank’s global groundwater report, The Hidden Wealth of Nations: The Economics of Groundwater in Times of Climate Change, highlights groundwater as a critical resource with the capacity to improve water, food, and economic security. Both over- and under-used depending on the region, the report finds that if groundwater is to be managed sustainably, far greater data is required to drive sound policymaking.

Aimed at advancing understanding of the value of groundwater, the costs of mismanagement, and the opportunities to leverage its potential, the key message of the report is that groundwater needs to be made a political priority, so that it may be managed carefully through integrated cross-sectoral action to benefit society, the economy, and the environment.

The report presents groundwater as nature’s insurance policy – a resource that requires careful attention in terms of the safeguarding of its quality and quantity to protect people’s health and livelihoods when surface water is unreliable, a problem exacerbated by climate change and the resultant changes in precipitation patterns.

Globally, groundwater provides 49% of the water withdrawn for domestic use and around 43% of all water withdrawn for irrigation. Millions of farmers depend on groundwater irrigation to produce 40% of the world’s crops. However, the report finds that, in most cases, groundwater is undervalued, overexploited, and mismanaged. The report’s authors argue that only by valuing the benefits of healthy groundwater systems will equitable management and provision be achieved.

A hidden and often misunderstood resource, this report identifies groundwater as a key asset in a country’s portfolio, with the potential to reduce poverty and promote resilient and equitable growth.

Regional disparities

With groundwater underutilised in Sub-Saharan Africa, the report highlights the value of this untapped resource for irrigation. Food security is a concern in most African countries, with nearly 25% of the population suffering from severe food insecurity. Yet, in Sub-Saharan Africa local shallow aquifers represent more than 60% of the groundwater resource. However, less than 5% of agricultural land is irrigated, and less than seven percent of irrigated land utilises groundwater.

The report states that although this water could be suitable for the irrigation of an estimated 40 million hectares, it is currently used to irrigate only 12.8 million hectares, mostly located in just five countries – Mauritius, Madagascar, Sudan, Ethiopia, and South Africa. The report estimates that groundwater irrigation in just 13 Sub-Saharan African countries could increase the hectarage of productive agricultural land 120-fold.

While the report accepts that more work is required to refine these estimates, it states that sustainable use of groundwater has the potential to improve the livelihoods of approximately 40% of rural populations in some of the world’s poorest countries.

In contrast, in the Middle East and South Asia, where irrigation is a key component of agriculture, up to 55% of irrigated land uses groundwater. As a result, approximately 92% of transboundary aquifers in the region show signs of groundwater depletion.

The report draws attention to the vulnerability that societies reliant on depleted groundwater stocks face in the wake of climate shocks, exposing economies to ‘exponential risks’, including maladaptation. Additional risks come from deteriorating groundwater quality because of rapid urban expansion, unregulated industrial sites, and inadequate agricultural practices.

Ameliorating risk

A significant element of this research by the World Bank is the development of a new global typology that has been developed and validated to enable novel global economic analysis of groundwater assets. This global dataset consolidates, extends, and refines existing global datasets to increase the understanding of aquifer types and the risks they present to food security, and the potential for development and economic security. Until now, there has not been a systematic and data-supported approach capable of capturing key characteristics of aquifers and how their condition impacts resilient development and poverty reduction.

The report finds that a lack of knowledge regarding the economic accessibility of groundwater irrigation for individual farmers, and groundwater’s ability to buffer seasonal variations and climate shocks, has resulted in it being an undervalued resource.

On the subject of accessibility, the report notes that access to pump technology and the energy required to pump water is leaving those most in need least able to access groundwater resources. The authors suggest that solar-powered pumping for irrigation, particularly for shallow groundwater abstraction, could help narrow the gaps in access to electricity, water supply, and irrigation, noting that in Sub-Saharan Africa in particular, gaps in access to water and electricity tend to overlap, especially in rural areas, and are the ‘leading drivers of multidimensional poverty’.

In addition to the benefits that sustainable groundwater extraction could have for agriculture, the report recognises the increasing awareness of the value of Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems (GDEs) in improving climate resilience, as well as supporting livelihoods. Furthermore, it draws attention to the buffer that groundwater can provide for urban populations and the role that well-managed groundwater can play in city plans to avoid the day-zero events with which some of the world’s megacities are grappling.

As a document, The Hidden Wealth of Nations report underlines the incredible value of groundwater to help the world build climate resilience, but warns that, if this potential is to be realised, action must be taken now to protect groundwater resources. This will require political will. Most nations exploit groundwater from transboundary aquifers, yet, to date, only six treaties targeting transboundary aquifers have been ratified compared with hundreds of transboundary rivers and lakes.

A call for action, the report finds that better understanding of the interdependencies of GDEs, climate change, rural livelihoods, food security and social stability must be developed and embedded in integrated policies to maximise the benefits of this precious resource to reduce trade-offs and prevent inadvertent consequences that could hinder development.

By Erika Yarrow-Soden

More information

See: www.worldbank.org/en/topic/water/publication/the-hidden-wealth-of-nations-groundwater-in-times-of-climate-change

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• Advance sustainable development and integrated management of water resources for the achievement of social, economic, and environmental objectives
• Energise implementation of related programmes and projects
• Inspire action to achieve internationally agreed upon water-related goals and targets, including those contained in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, through enhanced cooperation and partnerships.  

Based on the input of the five UN Regional Commissions and the UN-Water regional discussion groups, the report aims to showcase progress, opportunities and challenges identified in the regions of Africa, the Arab region, Asia and the Pacific, Europe, North America and Central Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), most specifically SDG 6, which focuses on the provision of access to clean water and sanitation.

As a mid-term review, the report highlights the urgent need for global action, with all regions facing challenging statistics. The continent of Africa is lagging in progress towards many SDG targets and the objectives of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 because of an increase in population, development making demands on resources, climate change, and the costs of the pandemic. The latest Water and Sanitation Sector Monitoring and Reporting System report shows that, of a population of 1.3 billion, 418 million lack basic drinking water services, 779 million lack basic sanitation services, and 839 million still lack basic hygiene services. 

The report cites that in the Arab region, in 2020, more than 49 million people did not have access to basic drinking water facilities and more than 72 million lacked access to basic sanitation services. 

While the Asia-Pacific region has made considerable progress on improving economic and social welfare over the past decade, the region is currently not on track to achieve any of the SDG 6 targets by 2030, with the greatest threat down to water scarcity, with much of the resources devoted to agriculture to support the food security of a growing population. 

Europe, North America and Central Asia have made great progress in delivering safe drinking water and sanitation, but the report finds that efforts to protect and restore essential water-related ecosystems are disparate across the region, with degradation of lakes, rivers and wetlands occurring in many countries and basins, including the fragmentation of river systems and increasing pollution of water bodies.  

The report also finds that the availability of freshwater resources is changing, driven by economic development and climate change. Diffuse pollution and wastewater discharges remain significant and floods and droughts in 2022 showed the severity of the impact of climate change on water. 

In Latin America and the Caribbean, one in four people do not have access to safely managed drinking water (161 million people), and seven out of 10 do not have access to safely managed sanitation (431 million people). The report finds that, at the current rate of progress, SDG 6 will not be achieved by 2030. 

While this mid-term review highlights the failures to grapple with the global water and sanitation crisis, it offers the opportunity to take stock, look at the goals of the Water Action Decade, and plan to address the requirements of each region. 

The review finds that, despite the five regions’ vastly different levels of access to water resources, there are a considerable number of similarities in both key issues and recommendations for progress. The report highlights the following key issues as common themes between the five regions:  

Climate change: As regions face the changing nature of the climate and its impacts on water resources, there is a consensus that more transboundary collaboration is required, supported by data, finance, adaptation and mitigation.  

Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) and siloed policy making: The report finds that IWRM is challenging because of siloed policymaking, weak monitoring, poor intersectoral coordination, inadequate data, and lack of resources. It calls for more systematic approaches to IWRM policymaking that considers the wide range of sectors and innovative approaches to managing competing priorities.  

Water scarcity: All of the regions experience varying degrees of water scarcity. In the African and the Arab regions, water scarcity has long been a persistent challenge. However, regions that have been considered water-rich are now experiencing water scarcity. The report finds that overuse and water pollution are largely driven by the growing demands of population, economy, industry and agriculture. The report calls for innovative water use and better data to improve water management.  

Water pollution: The report finds that global population growth and industrialisation will impact all five regions, leading to increased water pollution. It recommends pollution is tackled at source.  

Transboundary cooperation: The report calls for greater cooperation over shared water resources.  

The urban-rural divide in WASH delivery: The report calls for policies and investment focused on flattening inequalities between urban and rural areas, as well as inequalities linked to affordability and access by vulnerable groups. It recommends that the health of water resources be prioritised against the competing demands of population growth and economic growth, and calls for water resource management to be approached in an integrated manner, with informed policy and decision-making processes based on accurate data. 

Although the mid-term review highlights vast gaps in delivery, it has provided the opportunity for each region to take a close look at the dynamics that are stymying progress and approach these challenges with a plan of action. Each region now has a roadmap for delivering SDG 6, but swift action is required to avoid current plans being overtaken by increased demand because of population, industrialisation, and climate change. There is an imperative for smart, swift action. 

By Erika Yarrow-Soden  

More information 

See:https://unece.org/info/publications/pub/379008

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Climate change and environmental risks figure significantly in the report. In the short term (two years), out of 10 global risks, respondents rated ‘natural disasters’ second, ‘failure to mitigate climate change’ fourth, ‘large-scale environmental damage incidents’ sixth, ‘failure of climate change adaptation’ seventh, and ‘natural resources crises’ ninth. Looking to the long term (10 years), respondents placed even higher weight on environmental risk, with ‘failure to mitigate climate change’ rated first, replacing the ‘cost of living crisis’, which was rated as the highest short-term risk.

The significance of this annual survey is that it can be seen as an indication of how decision-makers are prioritising adaptation measures in the face of changing global influences. It helps to track perceptions of preparedness and gives insight into prospects for progress on the UN Sustainable Development Goals, highlighting the challenges that must be overcome if success is to be achieved by the 2030 deadline.

Risks to progress

This year’s report emphasises the interconnectedness of international pressures, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, inflation, and the climate change impacts that are increasing international turbulence. With the opportunity shrinking for a low-carbon transition, there is the risk that immediate concerns – such as the growing pressure on public and private sector resources – could set back climate adaptation measures. Political pressures may stymy fiscal support for adaptation, resulting in resources being diverted from medium- to long-term investment proposals.

Action is required urgently

The challenges of the current political and economic climate are converging with consistent reporting of a rapidly changing environment. A recent report by Eurasia Group describes water stress as a ‘global and systemic challenge’. The urgency for climate adaptation is further supported by a recent report by British multinational bank Standard Chartered, which warns that the world is likely to miss the objective of limiting global warming to 1.5°C by 2050 (see ‘News’). In addition, the IPCC has reported that there is a 50% chance of the 1.5°C limit being breached by 2030.

Struggling ecosystems

The GRPS found that ‘biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse’ was not seen as a pressing concern over the short-term. However, this risk rises to fourth place over the 10-year timeframe. The WEF report acknowledges that if temperature limits are exceeded, natural disasters, temperature, and precipitation changes will become the dominant cause of biodiversity loss.

Water security

In the context of water, the GRPS highlights that increased water stress will exacerbate the potential for conflict, and dramatic floods, sea level rise and coastal erosion will risk the lives and livelihoods of populations across the globe. This view is supported by UN secretary-general António Guterres, who warned at a meeting of the Security Council on 14 February that seas are rising by triple the average rate in some nations, putting 900 million people globally at risk of becoming climate refugees, affecting people in more than two-thirds of UN member states.

The GRPS highlights concerns that collective global action on climate change is failing to respond effectively to climate risks. A total of 70% of respondents stated that they believed that existing measures to prevent or prepare for climate change are ‘ineffective’ or ‘highly ineffective’, demanding the question of how these esteemed figures will themselves influence the necessary levels of change to combat reckless levels of emissions breaches and environmental degradation.

Urban water management

Noting the priority that cities and local and national governments are placing on water management, the WEF report encourages investment in water-efficient, re-usable solutions, including rainwater harvesting and stormwater runoff. However, it finds that measures to reduce water demand and waste have not kept pace

with the impact that climate change is having on water resources in the most water scarce regions of the world. It states that without adequate intervention, water availability will be a concern in all regions and calls for political cooperation to manage limited resources.

Nature-based solutions

Finding that ‘increased severity and frequency of extreme weather events and other natural disasters are already degrading nature-based solutions, such as wildfires in forests used for carbon offsetting’, the report states that ecosystems are reaching a tipping point, where there is a risk of ‘self-perpetuating and irreversible change that will accelerate and compound the impacts of climate change’.

With the 2023 report painting a grim picture of climatic change and current resilience, it should serve as a wake-up call for urgent, credible, global governance, to combat climate disillusionment and manifest resourceful, dynamic actions to secure future populations. As a barometer of the gravity that business leaders, academia and government are placing on the growing body of evidence of the escalating impacts of climate change, the report demonstrates that climate resilience – or the lack of it – is now focusing minds on the risks of unabated global warming.

By Erika Yarrow-Soden

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